Every year we take look at the ORR passenger data, and republish it.
Annual passenger numbers continue to rise, but slowly and unevenly. Looking beyond the most recent year there are some interesting patterns. While overall passenger numbers now appear to have peaked, the longer-term local trend closely mirrors national rail growth over a decade and more.
Interesting, because that growth has occurred against conditions that are often cited as reasons rail might struggle: higher fares than ever, uneven peak services, and — more recently — changes in travel behaviour following the pandemic.
Long-term growth despite real headwinds
Over a longer horizon, most East Lothian stations show clear structural growth. This growth has persisted against:
- High fare levels, with season tickets e,g, from Dunbar running into several thousand pounds per year. These are not marginal costs, and sustained demand at this price point suggests rail is valued by some.
- Service pattern constraints, particularly at peak times, where some commuter flows to Dunbar and East Linton remain patchy.
- Post-COVID behavioural change, including hybrid and modern working patterns, which has altered demand.
Seen in this context, the long-run growth reflects rail retaining relevance even as the market it serves has changed and high satisfaction levels tend to support this, though it depends on the operator.
The pandemic: collapse, then divergence
The pandemic years produced n unsurprising collapse in numbers, but the recovery phase is also revealing. What emerges locally is uneven recovery, with some stations returning close to pre-COVID levels while others lag behind.
This divergence strongly suggests a combination of factors including behavioural change and new stations, rather than delayed recovery. Stations with a stronger leisure, discretionary, or flexible-use profile seem to recover more convincingly than those dominated by traditional peak commuting, though possibly that is reading too much into the numbers.
Displacement, not disappearance
The opening of East Linton station illustrates why headline growth figures need careful handling. Early growth there is also highly likely to include displaced demand from nearby stations such as Dunbar and North Berwick, both of which show more muted recovery.
Housing growth and access still matter
Stations such as Wallyford and Longniddry help explain why overall passenger numbers have continued to rise. Here, growth appears to be driven by:
- housing development
- improved access and parking
- ease of intercepting trips before Edinburgh
Capacity exists — just not at the right times
One of the hidden messages in the data set is that East Lothian rail is not capacity-constrained. Off-peak and daytime capacity exists. The constraint lies instead in when services run.
Peak-time gaps, uneven stopping patterns, and limited flexibility for all – whether part-time or full time commuters mean demand is being shaped by the timetable rather than the other way around. In that sense, current passenger numbers may under-represent what the railway could carry with modest changes in service pattern or price incentives.
People are using trains when they fit their lives — for mixed work patterns, leisure, and non-routine journeys — and continuing to do so even when fares are high.
That is a more resilient form of demand than the pre-2010, when five-day commuting was perhaps more dominant.
Conclusion
The East Lothian passenger numbers do not point to a failing railway. They point to a successful system operating within delivery constraints — timetabling, access, and service pattern — rather than a lack of demand.
The challenge remains making better use of existing capacity, particularly by improving peak connectivity and smoothing service gaps. The data suggest that where rail is convenient, people continue to choose it. Could better integration between bus and rail services also deliver improvements for both modes?
